by Laura Ingraham

"We've met thousands of gun violence victims and their families. Their stories continue to break our hearts," said Sarah Brady, chairwoman of Handgun Control, Inc., in her opening night speech at the Democrats' convention in Chicago. Thousands die of gun violence very year, she noted, with the only bright spot being the Brady Bill's mandatory waiting-period, now on the books thanks to Bill Clinton.

But what about the facts?

Gapingly absent from Mrs. Brady's remarks was any reference to a new, comprehensive study that is good news for everyone concerned about crime. In late July, two University of Chicago professors released a report demonstrating that laws allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons deter violent crime. And they appear to produce no increase in accidental deaths, contrary to what was routinely predicted by various anti-gun lobbies including Mrs. Brady's Handgun Control Inc.

Authored by law professor John Lott and economics professor David Mustard, the nationwide survey compiled data from counties across the United States from 1977 through 1992. In jurisdictions that passed concealed carry laws, violent crime fell measurably -- homicides were down 8.5 percent, rapes down 5 percent, and aggravated assaults, down 7 percent.

Today Democrats puff their chests out and crow about their "tough-on-crime," pro-victims' policies, while Republicans' are left to fill out "missing issues" reports at campaign headquarters. But the unrefuted data in this study give Dole and Kemp a perfect wedge for splitting open the Democrats' hypocritical core on crime. Even more crucial for Republicans battling a gender gap is that this issue can be pitched as pro-women. States such as Oklahoma and Florida report that concealed-carry permits are becoming more popular among women, many of whom feel vulnerable in places where Domino's Pizza is faster than 911.

Guns are deterrents

For years gun control activists fought against concealed carry laws by predicting that they would cause a bar-room brawling mentality to invade the American consciousness. Horror stories about people shooting each other in the streets over the slightest provocation were trumpeted on talk-shows and in Congressional testimony. The statistics in this new report point to the opposite conclusion -- namely, when thugs aren't sure if a potential victim is packing heat, they turn their criminal ways to "safer" enterprises, such as car theft. In other words, they alter their behavior in response to concealed carry laws, and choose to avoid contact with someone who might have a gun. In the 3,054 counties that were monitored, property crimes such as auto theft and larceny increased. But what American wouldn't prefer a stolen Mustang over a stab in the back? What inner-city parent wouldn't rather see an increase in store thefts over an increase in violent street-crimes?

Think of a Republican campaign ad with the voice-over: "Bill Clinton claims that he wants to make fighting violence against women a national priority. But his 'gun control' policies make it harder for otherwise defenseless women to protect themselves. Bob Dole wants to keep criminals guessing about whom they prey upon. That's why he supports concealed carry laws. Clinton just keeps you guessing about his beliefs."

Even long-time gun control scholar David Kopel tipped his hat to the University of Chicago study, saying, "[It] is so far ahead of all previous studies that it makes them all worthless." How does Handgun Control, Inc., answer Professors Lott and Mustard, who have determined that "If those states which did not have right-to-carry concealed gun provisions had adopted them in 1992, approximately 1,570 murders; 4,177 rapes and over 60,000 aggravated assaults would have been avoided yearly." When Jack Kemp is busy stumping in the poorest neighborhoods in our most dangerous cities, he should be prepared to tell them what the Democrats won't -- that law-abiding, mentally competent inner-city residents will reduce their chances of being brutalized if their states allow them to carry concealed weapons.

Modestly extrapolated, this startling study is not only heartening news for Americans tired of living in the shadow of crime, it is good news for Republicans. The two groups that stand to benefit the most from living in jurisdictions with concealed carry laws -- women and minorities -- are also the groups that Republicans are having the most trouble winning over. This is one of the few issues besides Dole's 15 percent tax cut proposal, that Democrats cannot burgle from Republicans. Government that gives women and minorities the freedom to choose whether or not to carry a weapon, now a proven deterrent to violent crime, could just be the sort of government that more women and minorities support.

Laura Ingraham is a contributing editor to IntellectualCapital.com
and a political analyst and commentator for CBS News.